“Bye-bye, buy bonds,
Love ya’, love ya’ madly.”
Gene “By Golly” Barry sign-off, WING (Dayton, c. 1961)
The great Gene Barry, Dayton DJ par excellence, had simple, straightforward U.S. Savings Bonds in mind when he used to end his show in the 60s. Since then, the bond market, of course, has become much more complex in terms of both bond issuer and the securities being issued. A lot has changed, but one aspect of bond market investing has stayed the same over the last 60 years: Attempts by bond markets investors to forecast interest rate behavior have remained exercises in futility. If one could make such forecasts successfully, as the old saying goes, he/she would be famous (and rich) by Wednesday; but, no one could do it in Gene Barry’s day, and no one can do it now. The most recent proof?
Continue reading “Interest Rate Forecasting – Mere Mortals Need Not Apply”